By Akanimo Sampson
Since the Humphrey Nwosu Option A4 that produced MKO Abiola as a presidential candidate, and subsequently elected as president in Nigeria’s fairest election that was crudely aborted by the Maradonic IBB military dictatorship, the country is yet to get it right with its electoral system. As a result, the supposedly giant of Africa is being ruined by poor governance and some inept leaders thrown up by a flawed electoral process.
Humphrey Nwosu (October 2,1941 – October 20, 2024) was Chairman of the then National Electoral Commission (NEC), who was appointed by the “evil genius” himself, Ibrahim Babangida. Nwosu held office from 1989 to1993. It is to his credit that he conducted the widely acclaimed June 12, 1993 election which was seen as the freest and fairest till date. That election won by Chief Moshood Abiola, and annulled by the anti-progressive forces in the military headed by IBB, is largely why Nigeria is not making any headway on the path of progress.
Nwosu’s NEC introduced an innovative Option A4 voting system and the Open ballot system. There is need to return to Option A4 and Open ballot if a post-Mahmood Yakubu Independent National Electoral Commission (IN EC) is desirous of reinventing itself, and redeeming the image of Nigeria which it has dented with a flawed electoral system.
Disturbingly, INEC has been on the downward spiral since the 2015 election. Yakubu, its current chairman, was appointed to office by former President Muhammadu Buhari on October 21, 2015, to succeed Amina Zakari, who served as acting chairman. His 10-year tenure of two terms, will be expiring in October, 2025.
But, who will President Bola Tinubu, who is desperate for a reelection in 2027, appoint to oversee the affairs of the electoral agency? At the moment, some emerging intelligence reports are not speaking well of the principal of the Aso Rock as far as backstage schemes for the next election cycle are concerned.
For instance, Tinubu is about to enter the third year of his four years first-term, which promises to be the most crucial period for him to show that he deserves a second term in the critical 2027 presidential poll.
Menas Associates, a political risk consultancy in its Nigeria Focus, a monthly intelligence report on Nigeria, says pressure will be increasing as the politicking for the 2027 presidential election starts to take shape, pointing out, “there will be several developments that will shape and influence Nigeria in 2025 which will determine whether Tinubu will survive a 2027 challenge to his power.”
This year, which is just two months old, is forecast to be a year of political alignments and realignments as the major political players start positioning for the 2027 election. This is even in spite of the fact that the country is facing a significant cost-of-living crisis, which is directly attributable to the economic policies being implemented by Tinubu.
“The political momentum is still on the side of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) which continues to win elections. The opposition is in disarray, weakened, and unable to unite to challenge the APC”, the political risk consultancy says in its intelligence report.
According to it, the PDP, the Labour Party, and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) will probably attempt to join forces next year “because all three are so internally divided. It is likely that only some factions of the three will be able to form an alliance and this will not be formidable enough to challenge the APC.”
Continuing, the intelligence report says the two leading opposition politicians, Peter Obi of the Labour, and Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, “are unlikely to join forces because of their disagreements on who will be the main presidential candidate in any such arrangement.” Disturbingly, the opposition parties are even being weakened more by a defection gale. Labour and PDP federal legislators are joining APC which is further weakening both parties. Labour is projected to be most affected and the party may go into the 2027 elections with less than half the National Assembly seats it won in 2023.
Among opposition governors, the intelligence report says the chances of Governor Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State being impeached before the end of 2025 remains very high. With Fubara losing legal battles to stop his impeachment, the Friday ruling by the apex court will certainly pave the way for him to be removed from office.
The court held that the controversial 27 members of the state Legislature who defected from PDP to APC are still valid members of the state House of Assembly, pending the final determination of their status.
But, while the eventual impeachment of Fubara may create a political crisis in the state and increase the risk of attacks on oil facilities though not enough to significantly disrupt production, Tinubu will have the opportunity to appoint a new INEC Chairman by November 2025 when the tenure of Yakubu expires. He is expected to appoint someone who is loyal and from Western Nigeria, his Yoruba region, that will give him an easy victory.
Arguably, this is because little progress will be made on current attempts to amend the Electoral Act. The process is expected to drag on until the end of Tinubu’s first term with only token amendments allowed which will not fundamentally change the way elections are currently conducted.
Yet, “the state of Tinubu’s health remains one of the biggest political risks Nigeria faces in 2025. It is common knowledge that he is unwell, but unclear what illness has forced him to frequently travel to both France and the UK for medical treatment. There is always the risk that his health will deteriorate in a way that incapacitates him, triggering a political crisis because he has chosen not to hand over power to Vice President Kashim Shettima whenever he leaves the country”, says the intelligence report.
Adding, the report pointed out that tensions between the two men will increase and especially if there is an indication that Tinubu does not want to run with Shettima in 2027. He ran on the Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2023 because he wanted to appeal to ordinary voters in the North.
“The cost-of-living crisis and other policies which have made him unpopular in the region, means that Tinubu must depend on the South to win the next election. A Muslim-Muslim ticket is less appealing because of the Christian majority in the South. This may mean that Tinubu will consider choosing a Christian from the North as his running mate in 2027. This will increase the existing tensions with Shettima ahead of the 2027 polls”, the intelligence report says.
The controversial 2015-2023 governor of Kaduna State, Nasir el-Rufai, who is now a staunch critic of Tinubu, was once one of his biggest supporters and advocates. The man, who calls himself an accidental public servant, appears to have no permanent friends, only what many of his former acquaintances say is a permanent interest in anything that advances his personal ambitions.
In Tinubu’s recent tribute to him on his 65th birthday, he acknowledged el-Rufai’s contribution to the success of the ruling APC in three consecutive elections in 2015, 2019, and 2023. Not only was he a founding member of APC but also led the rebellion against a move by former President Muhammadu Buhari to back another Northern candidate as his successor in 2023.
He was additionally one of the governors who insisted that it was the South’s turn to produce the president in 2023, which paved the way for Tinubu to contest and win the APC primaries. During the campaign, el-Rufai was on the road with Tinubu and helped in one key movement when Tinubu nominated him to answer some tough questions during a presentation at Chatham House in London.
Even when he made it clear that all he wanted to do after his second gubernatorial term was to return to his studies to obtain his PhD, Tinubu made him promise to join his cabinet. El-Rufai, who has held successive public offices since 1999, except for a brief interlude in 2010-2015, agreed to do so but was then dumped after the Senate veto. The trained architect now appears to be angry and has become a full-time critic of Tinubu who he helped elect. He is urging the opposition to unite to ensure that Tinubu does not win a second term in 2027.
Unlike many of his fellow-critics, el-Rufai is one that Tinubu cannot easily ignore. He has a lot of credibility with the Muslim community and many loyal admirers in the North. Even more, he is willing and ready to make the wildest claims, even if they are not true, to advance his agenda.
One of the people who should know el-Rufai the most is former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who dominated the affairs of Nigeria from 1999 to 2007. He described el-Rufai as a malicious liar with an “inability to be loyal to anybody or any issue and with a penchant to destroy the character of people, including relations and those close to him.” Despite this, Obasanjo has also conversely described him as one of the best people to work with, who, if assigned a task, will deliver it.
As Kaduna’s governor, he rarely tolerated dissent, being willing to use the security forces to go after critics. He clamped down on civil protests but was nearly helpless as insecurity ravaged the state, and especially the predominantly Christian southern Kaduna. Some have described him as being a religious bigot and dictator but he has also been highly praised for the development strides he brought to the state. Current critics, including his successor, Governor Uba Sani have accused him of crippling the state with debt.
For now, is Tinubu capable of bequeathing to Nigerians a credible independent electoral agency this year ahead of his reelection battle in 2027?
- This piece was first published by The Southerner on March 6, 2025. The import of or value statements in the content do not portray the editorial position of peopleandpolitics.net which gave space to it based on the age-old maxim that a newspaper is a marketplace of opinions and ideas.
-Editor
